The Run In
With five games to go in the SWPL 1 season, we are checking in on the big storylines and how the key battles are shaping up as another thrilling title fight and relegation battle unfold in May.
Well then, every team has now played each other post split and just 450 minutes of football remain this season. With a fierce title race going down to the wire and an expanded relegation battle ahead of restructure it is all to play for. We’ve gone through everything ahead of what is sure to be another drama-filled run in.
The Title (& UWCL) Race
The title is the big one, it is where the focus of the next month is going to be. As it stands five teams sit within eight points of top spot as another season looks like it is going to go to the final day.
Hibernian sit atop the pile knowing that winning all of their remaining five will see them lift the SWPL trophy by the 18th of May, with how things have played out they can’t secure the title until that last day unless other results go their way. That final game of the season? Away to the team currently in second, Rangers.
Rangers and Glasgow City both have their fates in their own hands as well, winning five from five of their remaining games, including beating Hibs, will etch their names onto the trophy.
Celtic and Hearts are backing up the pack as it stands, they need to win all of their games but also need all of the teams above them to drop five points elsewhere for them to win the title.
UWCL qualification is on offer for the runner up, not as glamorous as a trophy lift, but still very valuable. Especially with the new Europa Cup coming into play next season. This is likely a more realistic challenge for Celtic and Hearts who would only need those above them to drop three points elsewhere while they win their games.
All five remaining fixtures for these clubs are going to be crucial, must-win, six pointers… all the cliches. A few dates stand out, however, as we reach our conclusion:
The 30th of April starts the run-in as teams begin to meet for the final time this season. Glasgow City have an away trip against Rangers, both could go top of the league if Hibernian drop points to Motherwell. Meanwhile Celtic host Hearts in a fixture that could all but knock one of them out the title race.
The 11th of May sees long time rivals Hibernian and Glasgow City battle at Meadowbank, while on the other coast Rangers travel to Celtic for an Old Firm that could have huge ramifications for the title race.
The following Wednesday is the penultimate match of the season, which sees either side of the Old Firm and Edinburgh derbies take on each other. Hearts hosting Rangers while Celtic head to Hibernian’s gaff.
Just three days later, the season concludes. If it goes to the final day the trophy will be won in Glasgow, handy to save on the taxi bill if a sudden U-turn is needed in the 90th minute… Celtic have already confirmed they will host Motherwell, and a potential title party, at Celtic Park; Glasgow City have the confetti ready at Petershill, with Hearts their opponents; and Hibernian travel to Rangers, the location TBC, with both clubs stashing champagne in their kit bags.
Avoiding the Drop
With three relegation spots on the cards this season due to restructuring, it was always going to be a tough year for the sides at that end of the table. Dundee United and Queen’s Park have already had their relegations confirmed with five games remaining.
Partick Thistle, Aberdeen, Spartans, and Montrose all remain at risk of relegation however, there’s a gap of five between Spartans and Montrose that will provide some comfort to those currently outside the relegation zone.
Thistle are nine points clear, and can guarantee themselves safety on the 4th of May if they better Montrose’s results in any way. Aberdeen and Spartans are in more precarious positions with six and five points separating them from Montrose respectively.
All things remaining the same, Aberdeen could face a relegation shoot out with the Mighty Mo’ on Wednesday the 14th of May, the penultimate matchday of the season. A win for Montrose there would take it to the last day. Spartans, however, could see themselves safe if they win their trip to the North East on the 4th of May and better Montrose’s result a week later when they host Queen’s Park and Montrose go away to Partick Thistle. If they better the result with a draw they will be relying on goal difference (dangerous) but with an advantage of almost 30 they should be able to count on it in the event of a tiebreaker.
Montrose will need every ounce of effort they’ve got left in the final five, they need to beat one (or both) of Spartans or Aberdeen while they drop three elsewhere. It has already been announced that their manager, Craig Feroz, will depart in the summer adding to the emotion of the run-in. The key fixtures remaining are likely to be:
The first matchday in the run-in, on the 30th of April, sees Spartans host Aberdeen at Ainslie Park. If either side is to drop the points Montrose need to create a relegation shootout, it is here. Montrose host already relegated Queen’s Park on the same day which form dictates should see them take three points.
Three days later Montrose have their first fixture against a direct relegation rival. They host Spartans at Links Park, anything but a Spartans win the week before turns this into a proper six pointer.
Then on the 7th of May, Montrose travel to Aberdeen for a North East derby at Pittodrie. Like the Spartans game this could see the sides switch places at full time if Aberdeen lose on the 30th of April.
What About SWPL 2 and the Championship?
Hamilton Academical had looked like runaway league champions early this season, but a tough run of form joint with Kilmarnock hitting a purple patch of their own, meant that Sunday’s trip down the M77 became a six-pointer. With Kilmarnock coming out on top, the gap has reduced to just two points with three games to play.
Kilmarnock face an away trip to third placed Boroughmuir Thistle, followed by a trip to Livingston, and then last placed Ayr United at home on the final day. Hamilton in the meanwhile will host St Johnstone, travel away to Gartcairn, finally hosting current-second bottom Rossvale as the league concludes.
The title is Hamilton’s if they can produce a 100% record in the games remaining, Boroughmuir Thistle or Livingston could do them a favour which would allow them to confirm the title before the final matchday (and relieve some tension). Kilmarnock need Hamilton to lose one of their final three while they pick up three wins of their own to secure the trophy lift and SWPL 1 status.
Then there’s relegation still to be confirmed… Rossvale and Ayr United also played out a six pointer in the Sunday sunshine. Rossvale travelling down to Ayr with just two points separating them from certain relegation and the chance to save themselves in a playoff. A 1-0 win courtesy of a late free kick extended their gap to five points.
A loss and a draw while Ayr pick up nine from nine would see them finish level on points, currently Rossvale hold a nine goal advantage on goal difference although that could disappear quickly so they won’t want to rely on it. They will secure safety if they match Ayr’s record over the next two games to avoid final day drama. If they win against Livingston on the 4th of May while Ayr drop points away to Gartcairn they would secure safety with two to play.
Finally, in the Championship there are three games to go and while East Fife secured promotion without any drama the other five teams in the top half of the split can still book a playoff spot. Currently, Stirling University hold the coveted position with two points separating them and both Glasgow Women and Renfrew. Falkirk are a further two back, while Inverness CT are the outsiders with a seven point swing needed for them to reach second.
Both Glasgow Women and Renfrew hold the keys in their hands. This weekend sees Glasgow Women travel to Stirling with a win sending them into the promotion playoff spot, then on the 10th of May Renfrew make the same trip. If both win and play out identical results in the other games then Glasgow Women hold the goal difference advantage with eight more.
A win in both for Stirling Uni would secure their spot in the playoff before the final matchday against champions, East Fife. Falkirk and Inverness, meanwhile, need draws in those fixtures while they win their games to send it to the last day.
So much is up in the air, but one thing is for sure, we won’t be able to take our eyes off it.