It's the Final Matchday

The season is coming to an end but with so many storylines needing an ending it is looking like a very eventful final weekend.

Here we are, 41 weeks and 955 goals since the 22/23 SWPL season kicked off. What a season we’ve had, and there’s one game left to tie a bow on all the storylines yet to be concluded. A three way title race and fights across three leagues to avoid/clinch the promotion-relegation playoffs (depending on which side of the coin you are on). We’re here to run through all the potential outcomes.

To recap what there is to fight for; first in SWPL receive the title and a spot in the 2023-24 Champions Path UWCL qualifiers; second get a spot in the 2023-24 League Path UWCL qualifiers; 11th face a relegation playoff against second place in SWPL 2; second in the SWF Championship face a promotion playoff against 7th in SWPL 2 (Stirling University). Those playoffs are in the form of a single legged final at Broadwood on the 4th of June. Promotion to SWPL 2 from the SWF Championship will be contested first with the SWPL/SWPL 2 fixture following it.

The Title (and UWCL) Race

In SWPL the title has gone right to the wire despite a gap that looked insurmountable forming on more than one occasion. Wherever the title ends up going credit has to be given to both Celtic and Rangers for their mentality to stay in it. As we head into the final game there are just two points between the top three, and while finishing as runners-up may be initially a disappointment it does come with the reward of Champions League football. Qualification to Europe’s premier competition has significant financial benefits as well as the prestige that comes with it that can swing potential signings your way.

That brings us to the final game. Celtic host Hearts at Celtic Park while Glasgow City have a trip to Ibrox to face Rangers. So, what does each team need to do to win the league or (at least) secure Champions League football next season.

Glasgow City

The league’s current leaders, perennial champions, and a Champions League contestant every season since 2008-09. If Celtic beat Hearts (not a guarantee) then they must win to take home the title for a 16th time. Were Celtic to lose or draw they would secure the title with either a win or a draw. It can’t be ignored that this season they have struggled against Sunday’s opposition with two draws pre-split and a last minute 2-1 loss in the home game at Petershill.

They only need a draw to secure Champions League football, no matter what Celtic do. If Celtic lose or draw, Glasgow City would still finish second with a loss.

Rangers

Malky Thomson’s side have rather snuck into second after looking too far gone just weeks ago, pushed on by the goals of Kirsty Howat they have been excellent in the post-split fixtures. Winning the league, however, might be a step too complicated. Rangers cannot win the league by anything other than a win. That is complicated if Celtic beat Hearts then they must win by the same or more than Celtic do. Currently the sides are split by +1 goal difference, if Celtic win by one more goal than Rangers then the decider would be goals for which Celtic currently win 113-111. On the incredibly unlikely event that Celtic win 2-0 and Rangers win 4-3 (or 3-1 and 5-4, 4-2 and 6-5, etc…) then the decider would be head to head, which Celtic edge on goal difference.

Rangers have to better Celtic’s result to book themselves a European trip next season.

Celtic

Celtic face the task of ignoring the result elsewhere and focusing on what they can control. A win will definitely confirm their Champions League status, combined with a draw at Ibrox or a smaller win for Rangers they would also get their hands on the lovely new trophy. Like Rangers they can only win the league with a win but if they don’t win then there are several factors that determine whether they finish 2nd or 3rd.

If they draw and Ranger lose they come second, but if Rangers also draw or win they would finish 3rd. If they lose then they will finish 2nd only if Rangers lose by more (unless Rangers lose 5-2 and Celtic lose 2-0 in which case the head to head goal difference is back in play with Celtic on top).

SWPL 2-SWPL Playoff

Have you got your head around that? You might need a wee break and a cuppa for this next bit, the promotion/relegation playoff between SWPL and SWPL 2. At the bottom of the SWPL there are two teams fighting to avoid it while at the top of SWPL 2 four are in the race to finish second.

Relegation

The relegation dogfight is fairly straightforward, Dundee United sit 2 points ahead of Hamilton and they play each other at Dundee United’s home of Gussie Park. If Accies win then they are staying up and Dundee United head for the playoff. If Dundee United avoid a loss then they retain SWPL status while Accies face one of the four in the relegation/promotion playoff. That’s the easy bit.

Promotion

Four teams split by two points, the SWPL 2 promotion race has been an enigma for months with no one taking advantage of the bad form of their rivals.

Gartcairn are in the driver’s seat however, unless results go their way elsewhere they can only secure their position with a win as two of the chasing teams have significantly better goal differences. As good as Gartcairn are, no one can improve their goal difference with a draw or loss (as hard as they may try). They have a home finale against Stirling University (who will be competing at Broadwood in the SWPL 2 relegation playoff).

Kilmarnock are the closest contender, they are a solitary point behind Gartcairn although a tough test awaits them in St Johnstone who are in the race themselves. If Gartcairn lose or draw then a win would see them headed to Broadwood. If Gartcairn and Boroughmuir Thistle lose or draw then a draw would be enough to see them head for the playoff on goal difference.

Their opponents, St Johnstone, have the worst goal difference of the four with -2. If Gartcairn lose and they beat Kilmarnock then they need Boroughmuir Thistle to lose or draw to get into the playoff. If Gartcairn draw and Boroughmuir Thistle lose then a 6 goal swing is required to see them promoted on goal difference. A 5-0 win would see them equal Gartcairn but unfortunately miss out on goals for.

Boroughmuir Thistle sit one place above them on goal difference currently and have a potentially difficult test against champions Montrose. Finishing so close last season, they only missed out on promotion with a final day loss to Glasgow Women. They will be hoping that the title party has raged on and that they are facing a side distracted by the jubilation rather than one putting down a marker ahead of next season in the top flight (they put 6 passed Queen’s Park in their last game which suggests the latter is more likely). If Gartcairn and Kilmarnock lose or draw a win will see them in the playoff.

Neither St Johnstone nor Boroughmuir Thistle can finish second with a draw.

SWF-SWPL Playoff

Then is the turn of the SWF Championship to get the spotlight. This one is a little more complex as the two sides were set to face off last Sunday but the game unfortunately had to be abandoned in the 40th minute with the score 1-0 to Rossvale after a serious injury to Aimee Morrison. Health and safety should always take priority over the game and we wish her well. That game is to be replayed at a later date, we understand this is likely to be after this Sunday’s games. Last season Rossvale lost to East Fife in the promotion playoff, they will surely want to go one better this time around.

This Sunday Renfrew can secure their spot at Broadwood before that abandoned game is replayed. A win away in Ayr, if Rossvale lose to champions Livingston, will be enough to guarantee their place with a 4 point gap over Rossvale. Otherwise it comes down to the outcome of that abandoned game, a straight shootout for the chance of promotion.

Stirling University are already confirmed as the opponents, a dangerous side who have some big players that we’d expect to stick around in the SWPL if they are to be relegated.

Regional League Playoff

It is the first time that a sporting route from the bottom to top of the game has been implemented and the sides in the Biffa regional leagues will be looking to take full advantage and earn themselves a place in next season’s SWF League One. Winner’s of the North League will face the winner’s of the East while South champions take on West. The winner’s of those two games go up while the losers face off for the final promotion match. It is worth noting that reserve teams compete in these divisions and cannot be promoted, this is especially relevant with Livingston Reserves having already secure the East title and therefore second will head to the playoff in that league.

Unlike the other leagues there are two rounds of fixtures to be completed but (almost) everything is decided, less maths for us and a more straightforward route to promotion for the clubs involved.

In the North, Forfar Farmington have played a game more and can be caught on points by Inverurie Locos but that would involve a goal difference swing of 40 as it stands. If they pull it off it would be one of the maddest results in football history. Forfar Farmington travel to Stonehaven for their last game this Sunday. After they had to fold on the eve of the season a few years ago it is positive to see a side that has helped to develop some of the SWPL’s finest return up the leagues. Inverurie Locos are at home against Dryburgh Athletic Dev this weekend and host Buchan next. More than worth the trip even just on the off chance that they pull of the improbable - although that will become impossible if Forfar Farmington win this Sunday.

The eventual winners of the North would face the East champions, had Livingston’s Reserves not been inspired by the first team and run away with the title. Instead they will face the runners up. Bonyrigg Rose and Linlithgow Rose are the sides vying for second. Bonyrigg are currently 2 points ahead so a win this weekend with Linlithgow losing would seal their place, Linlithgow have a significantly better goal difference so a draw while Linlithgow lose would take it out of their hands. Bonyrigg have an away trip to McDermid Ladies (11th) while Linlithgow travel to Musselburgh Windsor (4th). If Bonyrigg and Linlithgow lose both remaining games, which is unlikely, then Musselburgh Windsor are in with a very outside chance. Their goal difference is significantly worse than both sides above them.

South vs West is already confirmed, Queen of the South will play Harmony Row. Very simple, we are big fans.

There it is then, every possible future that stands before us. The fate of so many sides in the balance, heroes and villains to emerge, stories to be written that we’ll tell future generations about. One thing is for certain, it’s going to be an amazing weekend for action here in Scotland.