What's the Deal with The Nations League?
An explainer of the Nations League format, what it means, and who Scotland's opponents are.
In November 2022 UEFA made the announcement that they were bringing the Nations League to women’s football occurring once every two years. A tournament that was brought into the men’s game in 2018 to replace the ‘meaningless’ friendlies in international breaks (while players cried out that they’d rather those breaks be actual breaks instead of competitive games) and provide a route to EURO qualification (something that has been very beneficial for us). So how does the women’s version work, who are we playing, and what is it all for?
Format
There are 3 leagues (A-C) of 4 groups (1-4, league C has 5 groups) decided by each country’s coefficient ranking - a made up number based on results and difficulty of opponent. Future season’s league entrants will be determined by promotion and relegation which we’ll explain later. Each country will play the others twice, home and away, across 6 matchdays. The first of these take place between the 20th and 26th of September. Straightforward enough so far. After these 6 games the 4 group winners in League A will be entered into a playoff tournament 2 single-legged semis and a final to win the whole thing. Every 4 years this will serve as the qualifier for the Olympics, the top 3 sides qualifying (giving importance to that 3rd place play-off once every 4 years). This edition of the Nations League will grant Olympics qualification. For the teams that win their groups in League B and C, automatic promotion to the league above awaits. The teams finishing bottom of their groups will be automatically relegated, alongside the worst 3rd place finish in League B. The final outcome from this stage is a promotion/relegation play off. This will be contested between the teams that come 3rd in League A and the runners-up of League B for a spot in the next season’s League A, and the three best ranked 3rd place League B teams and three best ranked runners-up in League C. That concludes the ‘Nations League Phase’ of the competition.
Which brings us to the ‘European Qualifiers Phase’ in 2024. Promoted and relegated sides will be moved at this point. The winners and runners up of the four League A groups qualify automatically for the final tournament. Two legged play off ties will determine the rest with two paths and two rounds to the final tournament. Path 1 includes the 3rd and 4th placed teams from League A and the 5 winners of the League C groups and 3 best runners-up. The 8 winners of these games will progress to round two. Path 2 is made up of the winners and 2 best runners-up in League B playing against the other 2 runners-up and 3rd placed sides in League B. The 6 winners progressing to round two. In round two these 14 teams will be drawn into 7 ties for a place at the final tournament with adjustments made based on the host who automatically qualify. To make it a touch more complicated, automatic promotion and relegation will still apply for the placings during the European Qualifiers Phase for the next edition of the tournament. The next edition of the tournament will serve as the UEFA qualifiers for the World Cup, which will make things even more complicated when it comes to intercontinental play off spots but our head hurts enough after all that.
Our Opponents
Right then, that’s the format out the way. Overly complicated and with a lot of ‘best/worst placed’ implications but for us it boils down to, stay in League A or failing that finish the qualification stage in the top 2 of League B. Now it’s just about who we have to play to achieve that, what players to look out for, and where we might be able to get an edge.
Belgium
Last result: Belgium 5-0 Scotland (Coutereels, Mermans, Wullaert, Blom x2). Friendly, 11/04/2017.
You have to go a way back for the last game between us and Belgium, a warm up for the 2017 EUROs is the last senior match up between us which doesn’t provide too much for how this one may go. Coutereels hasn’t been called up in over a year, Mermans retired from national duty shortly after that game, Wullaert and Blom are still going. However, instead of representing Wolfsburg and Twente they’re now of Fortuna Sittard and UDG Tenerife respectively. Our squad has also changed drastically since that time.
Their recent results suggest that they are probably are biggest chance of points within the group. In their last 5 they have lost twice, drawn once, and won twice. The two wins coming with 2-1 results against Italy and South Korea in the Arnold Clark Cup. A 6-1 loss to England the other result in that tournament which joins a 3-2 loss with Austria and a 2-2 draw with Slovenia in recent friendlies. Often setting up in a 4-4-2, occasionally in a 4-3-3, Belgium are a side that rely heavily on pace in the wide areas and power in the middle.
Philtjens, de Caigny, and Vanhaevermaet are three players that we will really need to keep an eye on. Davina Philtjens is an extremely quick and tricky left back, currently playing with Lana Clelland at Sassuolo (maybe il bomber can give us some tips?). She really thrives on the counter attack and will help to drive the ball up the pitch in wide areas. We might be able to exploit the space she leaves behind. Assuming we continue with the 4-3-3 our wide central midfielder can deal with the run allowing the winger to occupy the space behind. We do need to be careful though, with right back a position of contention in the squad there will need to be protection to avoid them doubling up here. Tine de Caigny and Justine Vanhaevermaet are both incredibly strong central midfielders, standing at around 5’ 10” they are capable of overpowering opposition midfields. At EURO 2022 they were both in the 90th+ percentile for clearances and aerial duels won. On top of that de Ciagny was in the 93rd percentile for interceptions and Vanhaevermaet in the 75th for interceptions and 79th for blocks. Strength isn’t their only ability though, in the 2023 World Cup qualifying campaign they contributed 20 goals and assists between them. For de Caigny some of those came playing as a forward but it is still a ridiculous return. We currently don’t really have an answer for this. Kerr excelled as a defensive midfielder against Australia and Costa Rica, Corsie has been fantastic there for Aston Villa, and Clark has brought a size advantage along with her defensive ability but none of those have been consistent themes for the national team. All eyes on PML for how he deals with their threat.
Netherlands
Last result: Netherlands 2-1 Scotland (Miedema, Kalma, Emslie). Friendly, 02/09/2022.
A much more recent fixture for us to work from, a friendly in late 2022 which saw us travel to the Netherlands and give them a very good game, only losing to an 89th minute Kalma goal.
Netherlands typically set up in a 4-2-3-1 under Andries Jonker (who had just been appointed ahead of the last time we met), in typical Dutch fashion the focus is on playing with the ball with the midfield usually comprising of two playmakers and Sherida Spitse who does it all. Miedema should be back by September but she might not be back to full flight, and even if she is there may be a change of role coming for the Arsenal star. In the meantime they have used Lineth Beerensteyn as their striker. A different profile to the often deeper lying Miedema, Beerensteyn is more direct and stretches the back line (while still able to drop into midfield). It may allow the Netherlands to drop Miedema back into midfield where she seems to prefer playing. In their last 5 the Dutch are very mixed, although all are friendlies so maybe don’t read too much into the losses. 3 wins against Denmark, Austria, and Poland with 2 losses in between them. 2-1 against Austria and 1-0 against Germany. Some of their big names are struggling at club level as well, there may be an opportunity for us to upset someone that some will consider a favourite for the group.
You may have guessed from the above, Lineth Beerensteyn is a player we are very worried about. The Juventus forward has scored 4 in those last 5 games, playing just 354 out of the 450 minutes. When she’s on song, Netherlands typically win. For Juve this season she is on 0.72 goal contributions per 90 which is outrageous stuff. Jill Roord and Damaris Egurrola are rather obvious shouts, but they are obvious for a reason. Roord, a UWCL finalist and key part of Wolfsburg’s attack, is so dangerous wherever she plays. Usually popping up on the left wing she’s also been seen on the right and even at left back for the Netherlands recently. Quick and strong, Roord will run through walls for her team, her stats are high in both progressive passes and tackles with her doing everything she can to win. Netherlands fought to get Egurrola to commit to them and it has paid off. The natural successor to Sherida “she can do everything” Spitse in that she is a master of it all. 90th+ percentile for passes attempted, progressive passes, tackles, interceptions, and aerial duels won. You could maybe argue she should get more goals and assists but other than that she is the perfect midfielder. A player with her playmaking ability combined with being able to stop opposition attacks in their tracks is rare and Jonker is very lucky to have her in his midfield. They will be tough to beat, we laid the blueprint of how to do it in the last game with them. Pressing hard, not being afraid of them, and making the midfield battle quick and physical. It won’t be easy but we know how good we can be.
England
Last result: England 2-1 Scotland (Parris, White, Emslie). World Cup Group D, 09/07/2019.
We’re still bitter about that game in 2019, a really close affair that was won by a referee rather than any skill. However, both of us have changed manager in the meantime and have had very different fortunes. England won the EUROs (they literally won’t shut up about it) and are now favourites for the World Cup, we wasted the EURO qualifying campaign with no manager and no plan and then failed to qualify for the World Cup. It has not been a great time to be their neighbours. A chance to remind them who invented the sport then (hint: we did).
England are the easiest of the 3 to predict, Sarina Wiegman is as consistent as they come. To a point where it has been the overriding criticism of her time in charge. They will play a very familiar 4-3-3 with one midfielder dropping deeper to act as the playmaker while the other two drift wide and have the freedom to go forward. Build up from the back allowing the full backs to get up the pitch with the wingers inverted, coming narrow to get into goalscoring positions. They have found life post-Ellen White difficult to figure out with Alessia Russo not slotting into that role seamlessly, with Rachel Daly and Beth England waiting in the wings (or wing back in Daly’s case) we won’t say too much for fear of jinxing it.
With such a consistent team it is easier for us to pick players to highlight, we’re sure you’re all familiar with the Lionesses squad so it won’t be too much of a shock when we pick out Millie Bright, Georgia Stanway, and Chloe Kelly to keep an eye on. Bright is arguably the best central defender on the planet. A proper no-nonsense, she’d slide tackle her gran, wall when she needs to be but she does have a nuance of ball playing ability about her that makes her a very dangerous opponent. The old saying about knowing you’ve been in a game rings very true for attackers that go one on one with her. Out injured recently, she’s likely to be back fit for these games. Stanway is maybe not the popular pick in a midfield that includes Walsh and recently Toone but she is a real threat in all areas. Flourished after a Caroline Weir-esque move away from Manchester City which has allowed her to find herself and specialise in her role. She has flourished at Bayern Munich as an all action midfielder, box to box for 90 minutes and consistently a thorn in opponents side. It’s hard to really get across in words just how good she’s been so we’re just going to throw in a screenshot of fbref’s scouting report and you can see for yourself.
Finally, Chloe Kelly. Back from an ACL injury with a bang, key to England’s EURO win and toying with oppositions in the WSL for Manchester City. A quick, dynamic wide player that loves to play direct. There’s more than a touch of the shithouse about her as well which is huge for getting under opponent’s skin. If we are to succeed we need to not only make ourselves tough to beat but also take the mind games to England, get under their skin, make it physical and play it quick targeting the areas the full backs have left behind. Brazil showed how in the Finalissima recently.